Trump promised an invasion. That’s all many Iranians have left to hope for

A few days after the peak of the Iranian protests on 8 and 9 January, the president of the United States talked to the people of Iran directly, urging them to stay on the streets: “Help is on its way!” he said.

Trump's support up to this point had boosted the wave in Iran’s streets. The Pahlavi prince – the son of the last king of Iran, who has now become the face of the opposition – called for the people to come out on 8 and 9 January, claiming he had a firm promise from Trump that he would help the people of Iran topple the tyranny of the Islamic republic after 47 years of non-stop struggle and suffering. 

So, despite Iranian state TV threatening that people should stay home over the two days or face deadly consequences, people went on to the streets in the millions. And they continued to do so in the days that followed.

The subsequent crackdown was like never before. Because of the lack of independent international media access, and a total digital blackout for weeks, the exact numbers are still unknown, but estimates suggest more than 6,000 confirmed deaths and 22,000 more cases under verification, with some sources putting the number as high as 40,000 deaths, plus more than 50,000 arrests.

It’s been three weeks since Trump’s post. People are in absolute shock and disbelief after witnessing the massacre and the way the regime has been handling the protesters, their families, and society after the crackdown. In a dark moment in our history, most people see no other way forward but a military invasion by the US army.

Millions of engineers, shopkeepers, bus drivers, art teachers, housekeepers, students, farmers, entrepreneurs – just normal people – now know specific details about military weapons: tanks, jets, warships, what exactly the US warship Abraham Lincoln carries on it, as if they were serving in an army. It feels like every day they look at the blood on the walls of their cities, remembering those two nights and the massacre, and then look at the sky for warplanes as their last chance of freedom. And this is what a criminal dictatorship does to its citizens: it drives us to beg for bombs to survive.

People who support this idea, or do not speak against it, assume it will be a very limited, targeted and perfectly planned attack to topple the regime by assassinating high-ranking officials and Revolutionary Guards commanders – a takedown that would then peacefully lead to a transition to democracy, with the prince at the helm as a “transition leader”. Best-case scenario.

But we don’t really know what’s in Trump’s mind. Is he talking about the same strategy? Or is he thinking of a wider attack in which even more innocent civilians will be killed? Or none of the above? There have been “negotiations” initiated in the last few days – something that makes Iranians even angrier. “We shed blood – what negotiation?!” reads graffiti on a wall in Tehran.

The rollercoaster Trump has put our nation on is becoming unbearable. He has been insisting that his attack will be hard, a game-changer for the regime, and proof of the US’s excellent war capabilities. He repeats these claims every two or three days, and then thanks the Supreme Leader for not killing even more people, claiming he stopped him from doing so – which we all know is a huge lie. He will kill more, many more. 

The mind game this approach is forcing on 92 million Iranians is beyond cruel. People feel handcuffed, suffocated, reduced to observers in a power game played by a man who rules the world with no regard for people’s suffering. We check FlightRadar’s website every few hours – sometimes every few minutes – to see if Iran’s skies are clear. Clear means there is a possibility of an attack; the Trump war might start tonight. Parents hug their sleeping children tightly and spend sleepless nights hoping for the best, while also preparing for the worst.

Although many people have lost faith in whatever Trump promises, there are still many Iranians inside and outside the country who believe he will be the saviour, and that with a surgical, clean attack he will bring freedom to our beloved country. The majority are monarchists who follow the prince’s calls and are trying to pressure Trump from different angles to do something – something at least close to what he promised. 

Whether he attacks Iran or not, the damage his verbal intervention has already done to civil society is enormous. Shifting people’s hope away from the strength and capabilities of our own society to a US-led war on Iran has been the most costly outcome for civil society – especially for those who are now in prison because of their sustained activism over decades. All the rights they helped earn over decades, little by little, would be at risk. The regime would respond to a war by becoming even more brutal toward women’s rights activists, anti–death-penalty activists, and others. Repression would intensify under the pretext of war.

Even though I am super anti-war, I want to echo what I hear from so many people inside Iran (excluding the very few groups and thinkers who oppose any kind of external help). Inside Iran, many have come to the conclusion that street protests alone are not enough, and that some form of international support is needed – but ideally a collective effort involving multiple countries, including the EU, rather than a single country with Trump as the sole decision-maker. 

What frightens me most is the possibility that, the day after the war, in the chaos, there would be a lack of any mechanism to stop Trump and the US army from killing people and committing war crimes, or to hold him accountable for actions he might take. With other countries and powers at the table, we would have broader ground on which to fight for our lives, our country, humanity, freedom and dignity. I hope, before it’s too late, that the EU countries also see some benefits in a free Iran and join forces to help Iranians achieve what they want.

Iranian society is shaking – frightened, traumatised, grieving and angry. People just want the regime gone, whatever the cost. Since the internet has come back, I haven’t had a single day without a friend, family member, or loved one telling me: Just get it over with – even if we are killed in this war – let it happen so our children might have a freer future. It’s impossible to predict what this war will do to us, so we carry every emotion imaginable, from utter fear to fragile hope. “Just tell him that 92 million people are going through hell every time he tweets about Iran and praises himself instead of acting. Does he even know Iran’s population?” a friend said.

And they keep looking at the sky, every night.

Elahe Esmaili is an Iranian independent filmmaker based in the UK whose films focus on social issues in Iran, and have gained international recognition. Watch her latest short documentary, ‘A Move’, about women’s resistance against mandatory hijab here.